Saturday, June 27, 2026

Let's go TACO

 

So, after spending USD 200 billion, losing 13 U.S. defence service members and causing world-wide disruption, what did Trump get from the US-Iran war? To see it in perspective, I prepared a comparative chart and juxtaposed the outcome with that of Obama without firing a single shot.

 

What Obama had in 2015

What Trump got in 2026

Iran gave a written commitment never to seek a nuclear weapon.

Iran gave a written commitment never to seek a nuclear weapon.

Tight ​limits on Iran's efforts to produce weapons-grade uranium, aimed at extending the "breakout" time it would need to produce a bomb.

Only a general path, no specific commitments from Iran.

Forced Iran to ship 98 percent of its enriched uranium out of the country.

Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is to be diluted inside Iran — not destroyed — contingent on what may prove to be years of difficult diplomatic negotiations.

Extensive international inspection of nuclear enrichment.

Not mentioned in the MoU.

Unfroze tens of billions of Iranian monies held overseas and lifted crippling economic sanctions imposed by the United States and EU. Freed Iran's central bank to operate in the global economy. Also included cash transfers of previously seized assets amounting to $1.7 billion.

Lifted oil restrictions, promised to help create a $300 billion reconstruction fund in Iran with regional partners, and dangled the promise of sweeping sanctions relief if the two sides could reach a broader nuclear deal. But most of the sanctions relief is contingent on future negotiations that haven't yet materialized. 

Allowed Iranian oil exports only after Iran shipped its enriched uranium out of the country and was verified to have dismantled core elements of its nuclear program.

Allowed Iran to immediately restart exporting oil — roughly 90 percent of which is sent to China — which will bring in a flood of petrodollars, directly funding the Iranian regime. 

In exchange, Iran agreed to reduce its nuclear centrifuges by two-thirds, committed not to build new enrichment facilities for 15 years, significantly reduced its stockpile of enriched uranium, disabled a major heavy-water reactor and agreed to IAEA inspections.

In exchange, along with the lifting of the naval blockade by the United States, Iran  agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Point 5 of the 14-point MOU states the strait will be toll-free for 60 days, but after that Iran will work with neighbouring Oman to “define future administration and maritime services” in the strait. That means tolls are not ruled out down the road. 

Allowed Iran to enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent for 15 years – enough for developing a nuclear power programme, but well below the 90 percent needed to produce nuclear weapons.

The memorandum does not mention whether Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium at all or for how long.

Had very specific terms for sanctions in the event of non-compliance.

No such details are in the memorandum.

 


Trump claims to have obliterated ALL nuclear facilities of Iran. According to him, he has sunk its navy. He has killed its leadership and Iran no longer has an Army. So what exactly is the MoU about and who is it with?

 

If one is to believe Trump (like many of his MAGA supporters do), the United States didn’t wage war against Iran so didn’t need Congress approval, either before or after expiry of 60 days as mandated under War Powers Resolution. Nobody knows when this non-war began. Either it began in June 2025 when he didn't bomb Iran’s so-called nuclear sites “beautifully obliterating” them or it began on February 28, 2026 when Trump again “did not” start a non-war so that Iran couldn’t build the nuclear weapon with the totally obliterated Uranium that they didn’t have.

 

Following this, Iran closed down the Strait of Hormuz with weapons they didn’t have and its navy which was sunk. So, the United States had to continue waging its non-war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Everything has now panned out beautifully due to Trump’s charismatic leadership and "Art of the Deal" and lo and behold, he has achieved unprecedented success which no other President was able to achieve, in reopening the Strait of Hormuz which was open before his non-war. For good measure, he has kept a provision for Iran to charge tolls in the future.

 

Glory be!

 

P.S. My take: Trump just couldn’t bear the economic pressure generated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and caved in. TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.






Saturday, June 20, 2026

The straight and narrow

 

While Police academies and MBA classes have courses and lectures on how to be ethical or how to build an ethical organisation from scratch, not much emphasis is accorded to how to intervene in an unethical organisation. My thoughts on how to go about it crystallised over a long time. I feel, while individual situations vary, there are five essentials one should think of when suddenly parachuted into a situation of endemic and pervasive high-corruption.

First, define the transparency goals and see what level of corruption and indiscipline one could live with – sometimes, complete transparency or 100 % diligence to rules and regulations may not be feasible. As a DIG, I went to a lot of trouble to collect the transfer policies of organisations similar to mine, analysed and tried to improve upon them, prepared a draft policy for my organisation and got the same approved by the government. After this, I stuck to the policy to the letter. However, my DGP got increasingly annoyed at not having any discretion, not being able to oblige anyone and being helpless against a lot of pressures from different quarters. Finally, he changed my assignment and also revised the policy. My successor, a very good officer and senior to me, once advised, “Look, it’s important to be practical. If a transfer policy is implemented to even 70 %, that is a big achievement.”

 

Along with defining the ethical goals, it is important to keep the leadership on board and get them to have a buy-in. In my last assignment, I was face to face with rank indiscipline and corruption of one particular unit, WWCD. In the name of a ruling-party supported union, they had become a law unto themselves. I heard from my predecessors that whenever they’d tried to impose any discipline, the WWCD guys used to march up and down the corridors shouting slogans against the authorities in an aggressive manner. The Commandant used to quake when their union leaders threatened.

 

I compiled a list of their misdemeanours. A new location with modern buildings and facilities were constructed for them at a distance of 120 kms and government had ordered them to shift. However, in defiance, they’d refused to move, primarily because of the vested interest of some of the union office-bearers. I went to the Cabinet Minister, appraised him of the situation and told him that I was planning to shift them forcibly and I needed his support. He was hemming and hawing but I told him that it was not possible for me to work in such an environment and I was prepared to resign over the issue.

 

One day, in a coordinated operation, under heavy Police deployment, I organised the shifting process to start at 9 AM from the five locations of the wing, well before the personnel used to roll in casually at 11 AM. When they came and saw what was happening, they rushed to meet the Minister and other bigwigs of the ruling party but thanks to my prior efforts, they didn’t get to meet any of them. They tried to involve the press but didn’t get any purchase.

 

The second thing I learnt over time was that, rather than trying to attack corruption piecemeal, one should start with “frying a big fish.” In that WWCD unit, there was a constable rank person who was actually running the show because he was the head of the union. I mapped him in my mind as “The Don.” He used to decide who will get what duty, who will attend office and who will “work from home” [this was all way before Corona times], who will never be given any duty, who will get the contracts and so on. He himself was always on office duty and used to hold court after office hours to “decide” on everything for small and big considerations and distribute the day’s collections.

 

I decided to start with him. During the monsoon season, I put every single person on the field with water boats and rescue gear. The Commandant came to me in a panic and repeatedly asked whether the Don would also be sent on field duty and I asked why not. Then the Don walked in with his entourage and asked me how I’d put him on the field when none of my predecessors had dared to do so in the previous 26 years. He mobilised the entire wing to “boycott” the duties. In my research into his conduct, I’d found that he had kept a died-in-harness employee’s dues and benefits pending while processing applications of much later vintage. Based on this, I placed him under suspension and started the Departmental proceedings. I also threatened to start a Police case against him for criminal breach of trust. That broke the back of the revolt. When the office was moved, 123 empty liquor bottles were found in the room where he used to hold court.

 

The third important means of taking an unethical organisation towards an ethical culture is to incentivise ethical conduct and disincentivise unethical acts. Incentivisation in the Police context includes generous rewards, glowing testimonials, favourable appraisals, medals – even a pat on the back works wonders. Disincentives must be harsh for unethical acts. In Police, many unethical acts are punished through minor punishments like a “censure” or “warning.” The most stringent punishment is usually a suspension and a Departmental Enquiry which meanders on for years. These are not very effective nor immediate. When I was SP of a district, I learnt that the night patrolling was a major source of illegal income for the Thana personnel. Against a specific complaint, I went to the Police Station and got the concerned persons arrested. That served as a chilling effect throughout the district.

 

The fourth thing I’ve tried to do was encouraging whistleblowing. However, this is a delicate step. The whistleblower runs serious risk, not only of his life and limb but sometimes his family members’ too. While encouraging whistleblowing, one must make sure that the potential whistleblower is fully protected. His identity should be guarded.

 

Fifth and finally, sunlight is the best disinfectant. When I joined the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS), I found that corruption was rampant. There had been several CBI cases against the personnel and even very senior officers. The main way of extortion was through delays. Many permissions and licenses needed to be obtained by airports, airlines, concessionaires and so on before they could operate in the aviation environment. A single day’s delay meant losses of crores of rupees for them. What I did was put everything on the website. All permission/ licensing processing were put up there right from the application stage through each of the stage of processing with details on where it was pending and why, with names and designations of the official concerned. It was now easy for any applicant to track his application on a real-time basis. It was also easy for me to continuously monitor. This put paid to the delays. Further, in the teeth of severe opposition from my staff and their contrary counsel, I put up my mobile phone no. on the BCAS website. Sure, there were a few crank calls but I received such quality information that the organisation and I could respond to developing situations promptly and robustly. I think, these two measures contributed immensely to India hitting the top spot in terms of civil aviation security across the world.

 

Unfortunately, some of these telephone calls still come, despite my having left BCAS and even retired from the service long back because the no. is somewhere on the net. I don’t mind. At least, I managed to keep some people on the straight and narrow.