Gerrymandering – the word is quite a mouthful. In plain, simple terms, it means blatant trickery. This is what the drama about women’s reservation amendment bill was all about.
The seating capacity of the new Lok Sabha is 888. In the new bill government proposed to increase the number of MPs to 850. The plan for the new Parliament building was approved in 2020. So, the (dominant) party has been planning on this for a while. Where has this number 850/888 come from?
Indira Gandhi froze the number of Lok Sabha seats at 545 in 1976 through the 42nd Amendment Act and Vajpayee extended the freeze. This number was based on the 1971 Census. India’s population in 1971 was 54.8 crores. In 2011 census it was 121.1 crores. Census was not held in 2021. Currently, India’s population is estimated at 147.4 crores. So, a proportionate increase in Lok Sabha seats should make it (545 x 121.1)/54.8 or (545 x 147.4)/54.8, i.e., 1,204 or 1,465 seats, respectively. So, obviously, the number of 850 has no rational justification on the basis of population.
Given the track record of the party, garlanding convicted rapists and murderers, etc., its credentials regarding women empowerment is suspect. In the current Lok Sabha, they have 31 women out of 240 MPs, i.e., roughly 13 %. They fielded 69 women candidates in 446 seats, i.e., 16 %. In the recently concluded West Bengal polls, they fielded 33 women candidates in an assembly of 294 seats. The only and only purpose for the Nari Shakti bill in 2023 seems to have been “delimitation.” There is no logical connection between delimitation and women empowerment.
What is this strange animal called delimitation? It’s supposed to reorganise the constituencies to reflect changing population patterns so that each public representative represents roughly the same no. of “We, the people.” Unfortunately, this can be used to reengineer the constituency to favour a particular party.
Here’s an American example where a 3:2 population of Blue: Red can be so subdivided that instead of Blue, Red wins:
Coming to India, a delimitation exercise was carried out in Assam in 2023. The entire exercise seems to have been aimed solely at reengineering the constituencies to favour a particular party, rules and legislative intent be damned. Thus, while each MP is supposed to represent roughly the same or similar number of people, the voters in the redrawn constituencies vary from 14 lakhs to 26 lakhs. Non-contiguous areas have been added to constituencies to reduce the weightage and heft of its Muslim population. Similar variations feature in the concerned assembly constituencies too.
Three classic gerrymandering techniques were used in Assam to reduce the electoral influence of Muslims: Cracking, Packing, and Stacking. “Cracking” refers to the fragmentation of Muslim voters across multiple Hindu majority constituencies, therefore minimising their chance to form a majority in constituencies. In the case of “packing”, multiple Muslim-dominated pockets – which could have dominated several constituencies – were clubbed into a single seat to reduce the number of constituencies that Muslim candidates can viably win.
In parallel, Hindu population centres that were not each capable of forming a majority in a constituency were merged under a single constituency to give the community that majority. This was “stacking.” The net result: Muslims formed the majority in about 35 of the state’s 126 constituencies before delimitation. That number is now down to 20. In several constituencies which were traditionally won by Muslim candidates, no political party is now daring to put up a Muslim one.
This was done for one state, keeping the number of constituencies intact. Now, the Party wants to do it all over India with an increased number of constituencies to guarantee the elbow room it requires to eliminate any chance of opposition ever coming to power. They have been so blatant in Assam that far-flung areas have been clubbed into one constituency, giving the norm of contiguity the go-by. The end result of gerrymandering is that the politicians and the powerful choose the voters rather than the other way around, thus upending the whole basis of democracy.
A bill which was moved alongside the Nari Shakti amendment bill and was withdrawn was the Delimitation Bill whereby the whole exercise of delimitation would be conducted by a committee consisting of a serving or retired Supreme Court judge, the Chief Election Commissioner/ (central) Election Commissioner nominated by him and the State Election Commissioner and the decision of this committee would be final and cannot be challenged in any court. We have seen the conduct of the Election Commission(ers) of India in the recent past.
This is an existential crisis for the opposition. Unfortunately, they didn’t see it coming when the Women’s reservation bill was passed in 2023 with the delimitation– they thought it was far away in the future as the delimitation was to be based on the future census. They’ve woken up to it now because the government was trying to fast-track it on the basis of the 2011 census. However, Congress can’t make too much of a song and dance about it on the grounds of the North-South divide because they themselves have been asking for “Jitni abadi, utna haq.” So, they’re fighting it in terms of not waiting for the caste-based census results in 2027 and thus depriving the backward classes. That’s not understood by many and, as such, is not getting much traction.
My personal take: What is this nonsense of
one-third reservation for women? Women hold up half the sky, if not more. There
should be at least 50 % women in all legislative bodies. It’s not even
required to reserve seats for them. Just mandate all parties to nominate at
least 50 % women candidates for any election. That won’t even require a
constitutional amendment, or increase in seats or delimitation. A mere Act with
a simple majority vote will suffice. Abhi jo ho raha hai, bas nautanki hai …






